Kingmaking

As those of you who've read my writing on other sites and follow me on Twitter are no doubt already aware, I've spent a great deal of time examining not only the candidates, but the contours of the unfolding Democratic Party 2020 Nomination contest. Although I myself am personally loathe to engage in the sort of discussions I describe derisively as "horse race analysis" and thus I confine most of these conversations to Twitter, there's no question that they're extremely popular conversations. People want to know who is going to win and more importantly, they want to know if or rather how the Democratic Party establishment is going to find a way to screw over Bernie Sanders again.

For essentially the past three years, I've maintain the position that the Democratic Party no longer has the power over its own politicians and internal mandarins to present a united "neoliberal" front against Bernie Sanders. As such, I have been inclined to believe that although it's not going to be a cakewalk, eventually Sanders will emerge from a tough primary battle with Joe Biden as the Dem Party nominee to take on Downmarket Mussolini and the wholly corrupted GOP. Furthermore, despite numerous sketchy polls declaring Biden in the lead by well over 30 points, I'm still fairly comfortable with that prediction - and I'm not particularly concerned about a complicated, Rube Goldberg machine-esque, second ballot Superdelegate coup at the convention either.

Throughout this entire process however, I have always noted that there was indeed one seemingly unlikely scenario by which I thought the Democratic Party establishment and its rich donors could stop Sanders in his tracks. Namely, Tom Perez's DNC, the donors and elite liberal thought leaders would have to come together to pressure more than a dozen declared candidates to drop out early and rally the party's mainstream behind an anti-Bernie "unity ticket" - a ticket that would almost certainly have to be headed by current front-runner and former Obama Vice President, Joe Biden. Of course, in order to do that, internal Democratic Party leadership would have to be strong enough to force multiple, high-profile politicians with their own backers, donors and in-pocket media to "take one for the team" and stop Bernie. This is quite frankly an almost absurd scenario when you realize that there are at least 18 identical mainstream Dem candidates in the field already - if Tom Perez had the power to limit the field like Debbie Wasserman Schultz (with a little help from then-President Obama) did in 2016, why would there be so many mainstream contenders battling for the same anti-Sanders votes in the first place?

Well, despite my scoffing, it would appear that at least some people inside the Democratic Party power structure are seeing the same things I am, at least if this May 12, 2019 Politico piece by Heather Caygle and John Bresnahan is anything more that pure fantasy:

‘A dream ticket’: Black lawmakers pitch Biden-Harris to beat Trump 

Before we get too far ahead of ourselves, it should be noted that this entire piece might just be fluff designed to promote cracker-assed Joe Biden as the choice of the Congressional Black Caucus and thus somehow "the choice of African American voters" in the Democratic Primary contest - indeed, some of these quotes genuinely have to be read, to be believed:

"Yet there is no question that Biden — thanks in part to his close relationship with Obama — is popular with African-American voters, according to several polls since he entered the race. That support from within the black community translates into backing from black lawmakers as well.

“But for the fact that we have two of our own who are both quite capable of being president, I’d say probably a lot of the members would’ve already announced for Biden,” said Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-Mo.)."

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"Biden has a deep well of support within the influential group of 55 black lawmakers, having served alongside many of them in his 36 years as a senator and eight years as vice president under the first African American president. Biden has already racked up some key endorsements within the caucus, including from former CBC Chairman Cedric Richmond (D-La.).

House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.), the highest-ranking African American in Congress, often speaks fondly of Biden, a longtime friend, though Clyburn has said he won’t endorse anyone before his home state’s primary.

“I said a few weeks ago that if [Biden] were to get in, everybody else would be running for second place. I said that over a month ago. And he got in, and the polls said everyone else is running for second place,” Clyburn said in an interview.
It should also be of no surprise that Biden is polling well among black Democratic primary voters, he noted.

“The data are clear that he has strong support among African Americans,” Clyburn said. “It’s just that simple. He’s had that for a long, long time, and he’s kept it steady so far.”

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"Biden is a creature of Capitol Hill, with relationships that go back decades with some of the most senior members of the caucus. He happily refers to his former boss, the first black president, as “my buddy Barack” on the campaign trail.
 
“I don’t think people should underestimate the significance of this older white guy playing the role of second, a supportive second, to a younger man who is African American,” said Rep. Elijah Cummings (D-Md.). “And people felt this was real and authentic, [Biden] wasn't faking it. There was a real friendship there.”

Biden also has a natural ease in the black community in a way that other white Democratic candidates don’t, according to some caucus members.

“Biden is very comfortable in African American circles. Sometimes a white politician in an all-black setting, you can feel the seed of nervousness,” Cleaver said. “With Biden, he’s just right at home. You can see it and feel it.”

Whew; reading all of that you'd be half inclined to think Palooka Joe was the second coming of John Brown, and not a pro-segregationist meathead who once "praised" his future (and African American) President as "clean and articulate."As absurd as the idea might be to anyone who knows anything about Biden's voting record and public positions, it's safe to say that significant portions of the mainstream media have already received marching orders to play up Joe Biden's purported "blackness-by-osmosis from Obama" credentials - and this article is undoubtedly part of that portrayal.

Still, there are reasons to pause and wonder if perhaps this might not be a larger signal of the Democratic establishment's thinking here.

Truthfully, Lock Em Up Kamala Harris's nomination campaign is already finished; after repeated polling showed that she was not performing well with black voters because of her record as a prosecutor and Attorney General, she's reset her campaign by pivoting towards attacking Donald Trump. Overall, Harris is polling third in her own state, and far worse elsewhere in the country; which means that if Lock Em Up Kamala is going to stay in the national picture after the first few primaries, she's probably going to have to accept a VP spot on a stronger candidate's ticket. Logically, since there are literally no strong mainstream neoliberal politicians in this race except Palooka Joe, that would mean joining forces with Biden. Furthermore, Biden himself would likely be receptive to this plan, as it's clear that Palooka Joe's campaign team is actively scouting for an African American woman to "balance the ticket" already. In short, this strategy actually makes sense for both candidates on a purely realpolitik level.

Even more concerning to me however, is the involvement of the Congressional Black Caucus in an article that is all but negotiating Harris's surrender terms months and months before the first debates. This is after all the same political body whose support was not only instrumental in establishing Barrack Obama as a serious presidential contender, but also arranged for Hillary Clinton's belated capitulation in the contentious 2008 Democratic Primary. Although many African American left wing activists are quick to deride the CBC as out of touch sellouts and minions, the truth is that they have demonstrated palpable influence on Dem Primary contests in the recent past - and it certainly wouldn't take much for them to muscle Tom Perez out of the way and seize the role of kingmaker inside the Party this time around.

Is this the beginning of a united neo-liberal front? In my opinion, it's still too early to say - Harris and the Congressional Black Caucus by themselves, do not an anti-Bernie unity ticket make. It is however clear to me that the vast majority of Democratic Party strategists are starting to come around to the realization that their choices are Biden, or Bernie, and I think we all know that means Biden. The beginnings of a coalition are starting to appear in the media, and if they turn into actual bonds on the campaign trail, Bernie Sanders might once again find himself facing down an enemy who won't fight fair and has all the cards in its pockets.


- Nina Illingworth


Independent writer, critic and analyst with a left focus.

You can find my work at ninaillingworth.com, Can’t You Read, Media Madness and my Patreon Blog.

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